MY thoughts on the Republican Loss.

[johnnysorrow]

cuddlycthulhu was talking about the downfall of Governor Palin in the election and the post election thoughts that were going on. I made a comment about what I thought she should do and where she could go and the banter was good. However it got me writing about it because I felt the need. The first paragraph is the response I started with, but after that it went on its own. The link is here if you need background to what is being discussed.


http://cuddlycthulhu.livejournal.com/1114365.html



As for prep see my "Mightier than thou" comment. She needs to understand that a population of less than 10k, the politics are going to be extremely different for a population of 300 million. She didn't get that. However at this point there are bigger fish to fry. Inevitably there are several reasons as to why this was bad for her but good for the party, a party that is sadly reverted back to a regional party.

McCain was never going to win. I say this in hindsight, because as a historian, I can look back at the evidence and see the big picture. While McCain had the ability to beat the hell out of all of the candidates below him, I would liken him to Kerry in 2004. The Republicans didn't have a better candidate ready to take on re-surging Democratic Party. Had Senator McCain not had to play to the “Base” or to the “Values Voters”, Senator McCain could have been the Senator McCain of Arizona that we all grew to know and love in the Senate. But essentially he got fucked. Senator McCain had earned a chance to run for President and the Republicans needed a Candidate that wasn’t beating the drum of Theocratic Government.

Governor Palin on the other hand was never ready to be President, hell she wasn’t even ready to be Vice President. There were clearly more qualified Republicans that were waiting in the wings that would have been a better choice. Republicans that had a wealth of experience that would have eaten Governor Palin for lunch and made better poling in the process, Colin Powell, Mitt Romney, and hell Condolezza Rice to name a few. Hell Joe Lieberman was a rumor that I kept hearing about for Vice President. However, they Chose Palin because there needed to be a sacrificial lamb. They sold it to McCain as the gamble that all the disenfranchised voters that supported Clinton would so hate Obama and the Democratic Party that they would switch parties and go for Governor Palin. Sadly, you when you start talking about a Woman’s right to choose and their body becoming federally regulated. They get really touchy.

Going into 2008, the Republicans knew that the biggest Achilles heel to their hopes for victory was in fact their party’s leader, President Bush. President Bush’s strategy of throwing temper tantrums holding out and getting exactly what he wanted, while it worked for him, morally and financially bankrupted this country. It does not help that the Democrats when they had the lead went along with the program, putting up marginal fights to show some resistance. However, I can forgive that because President Bush was going to get what he wanted regardless, President Bush would have simply just gutted programs and used money earmarked for other programs to pay for what he wanted. I personally would rather have a fight and cave, then to have something like Social Services get gutted of their budget because of a vindictive child that decided to run for President. I however digress.

My theory is that the planned outcome for the Republican Party was to choose their best sacrificial lambs, hope that they would be able to keep their losses close, then focus on 2010 and 2012. Their candidates played their roles perfectly. Senator McCain was to be seen as the Maverick Centrist Republican and Governor Palin as the ground breaking Female Candidate would woo the Clinton supporters. However People started becoming informed and the media stopped giving Senator McCain the consideration that they extended to President Bush. Senator McCain floundered and could play both sides of the fence and pissed off the “base”. Governor Palin never got out of the gate properly and floundered, due to her inexperience and her inability to listen to her handlers. Her handlers are also at fault for not knowing how to speak to her. The Media strategy failed, Senator McCain kept making mistake after Mistake, Governor Palin kept opening her mouth and proving she wasn’t ready or prepared and Senator Obama kept on message and never blinked.

Comments

[cuddlycthulhu.livejournal.com]

I think that one thing the Republicans never really got on board with was how quickly information could be shared across the Internet and how badly things like YouTube could effect them. When you have people using YouTube to compare what a candidate said one week and then again the next week, it's incredibly powerful especially when there is a clear difference in what that candidate said; a huge complaint about McCain is that his strategies and views were all over the map and if it hadn't been for things like YouTube or websites where articles could be researched, that might not have been noticed as much.

[toymaker.livejournal.com]

One might also argue that they didn't expect Obama to be competitive. His 50 state Strategy did work.

[kierthos.livejournal.com]

It did. But you also can't discount the "hey, someone besides a crusty old white guy is running" effect.

[toymaker.livejournal.com]

Yeah the Kennedy effect was is in full effect. And really what I have is just the tip of the Ice Berg. Dueling advisers couldn't have helped either
.

[kakizaki-b.livejournal.com]

I have been saying for a while that the core Repub strategists had written this election off as a loss.

They gave McCain his shot in the sun to shut him up, and they used it as an opportunity to test the waters on an up a coming Religious Conservative with Palin.

McCain got a raw deal IMO. Hes not a bad guy, but I think he is past his hey day.

[cruz531.livejournal.com]

The other aspect is the people who voted for the Vice Presidential candidate for President because they didn't think either of the Presidential candidates would make it through the term. McCain probably wouldn't make it because of a combination of health problems (cancer, etc..) and age, and Obama because of the lack of faith in our society/belief that their are to many prejudice type people (skinheads, etc..) that someone will assassinate him. Given that out look Biden is the better choice, because he actually has the intelligence necessary and a plan for once he was in office that people knew about so they could have expectations and Palin had neither.